Sudan’s civil war between its army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) could very well trigger a conflict in North Darfur that has impacts beyond Sudan’s borders, according to residents, aid workers and experts.
Clashes between the Sudanese army and the rival RSF are pulling in tribal actors, raising fears of a spiral into mass killings along ethnic lines, said the director of an international nongovernmental organisation (INGO), who requested anonymity to protect their team in North Darfur.
For the past week, the RSF and aligned nomadic (referred to as “Arab”) militias have clashed with the Sudanese army and allied sedentary (referred to as “non-Arab”) tribal armed movements in North Darfur.
Last week, tensions soared after the Joint Force of Armed Struggle Movements – a coalition of “non-Arab” armed groups – dropped their neutrality on April 12 to support the army against the RSF.
A day later, the RSF side burned down several “non-Arab” villages in the east of North Darfur, following disputes between nomads and farming tribes over stolen cattle, according to residents.
Civilians fled the villages to al-Shagra town and Zamzam camp, which hosts hundreds of thousands of people displaced from across Darfur, and where there have been no RSF attacks to date, residents say.
Later that month, Minni Minawi, leader of the Sudanese Liberation Movement, and Gibril Ibrahim, leader of the Justice and Equality Movement, sided with the army. Both men are from the Zaghawa non-Arab tribe.
At the time, the other “non-Arab” armed movements – the Joint Protection Forces (JPF) – reaffirmed their neutrality and deployed fighters to el-Fasher to “protect civilians”.
But with the Joint Protection Forces now at war with the RSF, there is no sizable armed actor available to mediate between the RSF and the army, said the head of the INGO mission in el-Fasher.
“I have seen the demeanor of my team change,” the source told Al Jazeera. “In October and November, the JPF was there, acting like a neutral party that brought tensions down, but now we don’t have that. So whatever spark occurs could mean an all-out war for everybody.”
A war could quickly draw in nomadic and sedentary tribes, said Afnan, adding that many youth from the Zaghawa tribe have mobilised to support the armed movements, or picked up weapons to protect themselves.
“We’re expecting a confrontation,” she said. “The armed movements and the army are in the centre of el-Fasher and in the central market. We’re expecting clashes here, especially if the RSF decides to advance on the centre of the city.”
Regional implications
The Zaghawa tribe extends beyond the borders of Sudan into Chad, and a tribal conflict in North Darfur could draw in Chadian fighters, said Remadji Hoinathy, an expert with the Institute for Security Studies think-tank focusing on Africa.
“Zaghawa people from remote villages in Chad – who live along the border and are very armed – could absolutely be implicated in the conflict [in North Darfur],” Hoinathy told Al Jazeera.
“They could choose to defend villages that could still be defended from the RSF and these dynamics should be observed closely.”
Chad is ruled by President Mahamat Idriss Deby, who took over after his father died unexpectedly in a battle against anti-government rebels in April 2021.
Since the war in Sudan erupted, Deby has been under extensive internal and external pressure to support a side, according to the International Crisis Group, a non-profit dedicated to preventing and mitigating conflict worldwide.
In January, a report by a panel of experts from the United Nations Security Council found “credible evidence” that Deby allows the United Arab Emirates to use Chadian territory to smuggle weapons to the RSF regularly.
Hoinathy said the UAE has leverage over Chad since it is a major provider of financial and military aid to Deby, a relationship that would be tested if the RSF goes to war with Zaghawa armed groups in North Darfur.